Diaspora vote: Will it exceed last year’s turnout and who would benefit?

Embassy of the Republic of Serbia in Prague

Photo: MFA Serbia

In last year’s parliamentary election, 30,141 citizens of Serbia voted from abroad. Though it did not represent a large share of the total turnout – it amounted to less than 1% – it was still the highest number in recent years. In the early weeks of the 2023 campaign, opposition parties again launched mobilisation efforts for diaspora votes, with the deadline for registration to vote expiring on 25 November.

The 2022 election saw the number of citizens of Serbia voting from abroad increase more than three times compared to the 2020 election, which was partially boycotted by the opposition.

Even in the elections that nobody boycotted, however, the number of votes from abroad previously did not exceed 10,000, with the exception of 2008 parliamentary election.

Last year, there were 6,502,307 voters registered on the Single Electoral Roll of Serbia. Experts estimate that at least a million of those people, probably even more, did not reside in the country. Only a small fraction of the voters abroad, therefore, actually voted.

According to the Law on Election of the Members of Parliament, a polling station will be designated for a minimum of 100 voters, with rare exceptions. The voters first need to submit the request for voting abroad to the Serbian embassy or consulate. According to Crta, a CSO, these procedures have contributed to the relatively low participation.

Members of the opposition “Serbia Against Violence” coalition, Freedom and Justice Party (SSP) and Green-Left Front (ZLF) in particular, have been active in encouraging voters from abroad to register to vote on their social media platforms. ZLF has launched a specialised website to facilitate the organisation of citizens living abroad.

Other initiatives to mobilize and facilitate diaspora voters have been launched as well, including “Dijaspora glasa 2023” and “Glasaj iz dijaspore“.

Following the expiration of the deadline on 25 November, the Republic Electoral Commission will adopt a decision on opening polling stations abroad. Last year, 77 polling stations were open in 32 countries.

Who benefits from the diaspora votes?

In 2022, the list of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 51.7% of the votes from abroad, with more than half of these votes coming from Bosnia and Herzegovina. This country accounted for about a third of all of these votes.

The largest opposition list “United for the Victory of Serbia” won 14.6% of the votes from abroad, almost exactly matching its national result. Green-left list “Moramo” won 7.41% votes from abroad, which was higher than its overall percentage of the votes.

The top five countries in terms of diaspora vote in the 2022 parliamentary election were the already mentioned Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France.

The countries were a mixed bag for the ruling SNS with very good results in Bosnia and Herzegovina and solid results in Austria (42%, matching the national result). In the other three countries, SNS won less than it won nationally, with the difference particularly stark in Germany, where it won only 16% of the vote.