Entrance to the National Assembly of Serbia
Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Zoran Cvetković
BELGRADE – First public opinion poll released after the start of the election campaign, carried out by the New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM), found the coalition around the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) at 39%. Opposition coalition “Serbia Against Violence” appears for the first time in a poll with 26%.
The poll was carried out from 5 to 12 November on a sample of 1000 citizens via telephone interviews.
Given the fact that the parties composing the “Serbia Against Violence” (SPN) coalition won 18.5% last year running on two lists, this finding suggests that the coalition would attract new voters.
It would also be the first opposition electoral list to win more than 20% of the vote since SNS came to power in 2012.
Last year, the coalition around SNS, which is now running as “Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop” won 42.96% of the vote. If the results of the poll were replicated on 17 December, it would mean a slight decrease of support for the party and a continuation of a slow downward trend (in 2016, it scored 48%).
The list submitted by the junior coalition partner SPS would also win less votes than last year, when it scored 11.44%.
NSPM poll finds that three right-wing lists would also cross the threshold of 3%: “National Rally” (NO) composed of “Dveri” and “Zavetnici” parties, NADA coalition, as well as People’s Party led by former Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremić, which is yet to submit its list.
Parties composing NADA and NO won 12.88% last year running on three lists. This poll finds their joint result somewhat lower, at 9.5%.
For the past several years, this pollster has also been including the category “Opposition, but I do not know for whom to vote” in its offer, which now includes 8.4% of the respondents.
Đorđe Vukadinović, the owner of NSPM, has argued several times that there are many citizens who during the interview express clear anti-government stance but cannot choose between the fragmented opposition parties.
It is, however, not clear how many of these voters abstain from elections. Removing this category and keeping only those who expressed a clear preference for a list increases the percentages of the leading candidates.
The accuracy of the infrequent opinion polls published ahead of elections in Serbia is often questioned. Last year, the final poll carried out by NSPM overestimated the support of both the ruling SNS coalition and the opposition United for the Victory of Serbia (UzPS) and “We Must” (Moramo), the parties which are now, mostly, in the “Serbia Against Violence” coalition.
On the other hand, the poll underestimated the support of SPS and right-wing parties which, according to many interpretations, received a boost of support following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Based on this single poll, it is impossible to say whether there is a trend of bias in NSPM research. Other pollsters, including Ipsos and Faktor plus, made even bigger errors in their final polls before last year’s election.
