National Assembly of Serbia
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
BELGRADE – The second poll released by NSPM since the start of the campaign shows little change compared to the first one, published in mid-November. Coalition around the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is at 39.8%, while the largest opposition coalition “Serbia Against Violence” is at 25.6%.
It is only a slight change compared to November poll, in which SNS had 39.2% and “Serbia Against Violence” was at 25.8%.
Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), junior coalition partner of the ruling SNS, grew from 8.1% in November to 8.9% in December.
Right-wing “National Rally” and NADA coalitions also picked up some new voters according to the poll and are safely above the 3% threshold, at 6,5% and 5,9%, respectively.
On the other hand, the list of People’s Party (NS) and DJB-SDS “Good Morning” coalition are between 2% and 3%. Both lists have less than they had in November.
Another list that is now close to the threshold, according to NSPM, is “We – The Voice from the People“, headed by controversial pulmonologist Branimir Nestorović, who rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic. He was subsequently accused of downplaying the seriousness of the virus and then of promoting various conspiracy theories. He is not regarded as a serious opposition figure.
The poll was carried out from 25 November to 4 December on a sample of 1000 citizens via telephone interviews.
NSPM poll also shows that minority lists of the Hungarian minority VMSZ and Bosniak-Croat minority SPP-DSHV would get representation in the parliament. The 3% threshold does not apply to national minorities and other lists might win seats as well.
Đorđe Vukadinović, head of the NSPM, said during the weekend that there would not be a poll for the Belgrade election, because not enough citizens could be reached via telephone due to constant calls from SNS call centres.
This NSPM poll is only the second one released since the start of the campaign, which is unusual, even when the fact that polls are scarcely published in Serbia is taken into account.
The accuracy of the polls in Serbia is often in doubt. Last year, the final poll carried out by NSPM overestimated the support of both the ruling SNS coalition and the opposition United for the Victory of Serbia (UzPS) and “We Must” (Moramo), the parties which are now, mostly, in the “Serbia Against Violence” coalition.
On the other hand, the poll underestimated the support of SPS and right-wing parties.
Based on this single poll, it is impossible to say whether there is a trend of bias in NSPM research. Other pollsters, including Ipsos and Faktor plus, made even bigger errors in their final polls before last year’s election.
